Can India and China Engage Amid Global Trade Issues?

Amidst global geopolitical uncertainty, countries have made it imperative to find other options to avert alliance-like frameworks. Seeing the evolution of BRICS through the inclusion of new members has made it crucial for two Asian giants, India and China, to leave away stains from the recent skirmish and move on towards paving the way to cooperation and engagement amidst reciprocal tariffs imposed by President Trump.

In view of the aforementioned point, it is crucial for New Delhi to adopt a realistic approach towards any constructive offer from Beijing through a neutral involvement of the Kremlin in a multilateral framework such as BRICS, which is now becoming an institution of engagement between rising powers such as China, Russia, and India making Arab and African countries such as Egypt, Iran, Ethiopia, and Saudi Arabia, who have a stake in shaping an inclusive Global South.  

The multilateral grouping underscores a constructive role member country could play in ensuring inclusive cum resilient growth in the Global South amid protectionist US sanctions on BRICS members such as China, where New Delhi also had to face reciprocal tariffs on imports. The move allows the latter to look towards multiple groupings to foster regional stability.

Hence, the aforementioned developments have raised hope and incentives for any peace resolution coming into force between the two countries. Further, PM Modi, during the Kazan meeting, underscored that the relations between the two countries should foster mutual trust, sensitivity, and mutual respect to restore tranquillity and peace at borders and adjoining areas and even focus on exchanging views on non-traditional security threats such as terrorism, drugs smuggling, climate change.

Multilateral Frameworks: An Opportunity for Two Asian Giants

Moreover, the optimistic high-level meeting between Modi and Xi, on October 23, 2024, laid the background behind mustering cooperation and trust to speed up furthering peace and disengagement in Eastern Ladakh.

The BRICS+ could be used as an opportunity to provide smaller countries with a hedging role in altering the balance of power in favor of India and China, where the two regional powers could cooperate to ensure the status quo in a multipolar anarchic geopolitical climate.

Kremlin, which is facing the heat due to an economic embargo due to her involvement in Ukraine and also many smaller countries viewing her as a pariah state, could be compelling her to look towards New Delhi and Beijing to play a neutral role in creating an alternative cum inclusive institution and this initiative definitely requires adaption and fostering sustainable development practices in conflict-prone zones in the midst of modernization, rising non-conventional threats.

Thus, seeing the development last year vis-à-vis the BRICS expansion, the Kazan initiative was intended to create a level playing field for smaller countries to hasten engagement with multiple stakeholders to foster peaceful cum inclusive global development instead of a tool of extraction cum peripheral exploitation.

New Delhi’s Openness in Fostering National Interests

Further, the BRICS Summit may be a tool for New Delhi to further her iteration towards ensuring a balanced multipolar order in the region through collaboration, engagement, and practical conflict resolution mechanisms. Even, historical relations with Kremlin can’t be compromised due to her continuous support of New Delhi’s defense and military needs. New Delhi intends not to upset Washington by showing hands of friendship towards the Kremlin since it is in Washington’s interest that India could play a constructive role in bringing stakeholders together and be an alternative to a single regional power.

Moreover, India has also played a critical role in providing humanitarian assistance to South Asian countries such as Sri Lanka and Bangladesh during dire times of need due to the prevalent debt and economic impasse. With context to the latter, the recent political crisis has incentivized New Delhi to keep its options open if economic cum political benefits are achieved through discussion, collaboration, and engagement.

Amid multilateral mechanisms, New Delhi should not be deceived by the time-playing tactics of Beijing, which is now adopting silent measures to foster regional legitimacy. The Summit also has an agenda of ‘Just Global Development and Security,’ which Beijing focuses on, harnessing her GDI initiative to win over stakeholders and promote brotherly relations through the BRI.

Observingly, Beijing is apparently under heat because of its activities in the Indian periphery and Taiwan Strait. Plus, it was one of the first countries to meet Donald Trump’s tariff target of 10 percent on Chinese goods, which the Chinese Ministry firmly opposed.

In a tough Sino-US trade competition and Washington’s sanction phrases on BRICS countries, the latter could build an inclusive framework where countries could hold dialogue consultations on technology, ICT, pharmaceuticals, trade, artificial intelligence, and digital infrastructure instead of focussing on a common currency, which could prove catastrophic for India with 100 percent tariffs being bombarded on imports.

Factually, Beijing is trying to use multilateral means to put New Delhi on its toes so that the latter doesn’t create obstacles in regional power balance and thwart her geopolitical maneuvers. To keep in mind such developments and balancing relations with both the competing stakeholders makes it imperative for Moscow to adapt to openness in bolstering ties with New Delhi and non-Western players to keep its position at the same pace in the midst of strategic misadventure where winning minds could occur through interactions and understanding regional dynamics.

For New Delhi, her neighborhood security is critical, where the soft nexus of Beijing-Islamabad must be put in check, which could only be through soft balancing engagements with like-minded QUAD players as well as BRICS, G20, and SCO. There seems to be a high stake for New Delhi in these summits, where the latter is sandwiched between two powers, the Kremlin and Beijing. Where further, this could be leveraged for her strategic benefits to engage with Kremlin and CIS countries while keeping a check on Beijing’s sweet cum muscular posture. In order to reduce power imbalance, the BRICS, which occupies 42 percent of the global oil supply, could foster a balanced approach towards resource trade and exchanges with collaboration on developing pipeline networks to grant access to strategic resources such as natural gas.

Is an Incentive-Based Partnership Possible?

Nevertheless, the grouping will give New Delhi an incentive to be a rising global player and leverage ties with both Moscow and Beijing to ensure an equilibrist order in Indo Pacific. In case positive developments prevail, New Delhi should nevertheless lay emphasis on self-help and her current global stature instead of falling into any trap vis-à-vis revisionist intentions of a great power.

Moreover, this underscores New Delhi’s need to introspect while pursuing soft pre-emptive postures involving non-state actors such as media and civil society groups that play the role of checking and balancing any adversarial intent. Coming to increasing convergences vis-à-vis ties between Beijing and the Kremlin, New Delhi must not stay in ignorance and keep a watch regarding Washington’s best wishes to India vis-à-vis BRICS being a pro-China institution where Beijing’s economic prowess will be furthering through bringing various countries under one umbrella.

Amid ushering ties between the US and India, these developments could be seen as a positive realm for collaboration on science and technology, trade where the trade between the two countries soared towards USD 191 billion. Further, this is an incentive for the latter to play a hedging role in the Indo-Pacific through furthering defense and technological collaborations alongside the QUAD.

It is key for India to keep options open for making space in multilateral frameworks since the strategic convergence between Islamabad, Beijing, and the Kremlin is still permanent, and if this all-weather zero-sum partnership’s capability is seen mis-calculatingly and in deception, it could prove humiliating and consequential in coming years. Therefore, with regards to New Delhi, it could only muster deterrence through alternatively engaging and collaborating with middle and great powers.

New Delhi’s Future Prospects

In 2025, after coming to power, President Trump reiterated that 100 percent tariffs could be imposed on BRICS countries if a move is taken towards mustering de-dollarisation. In the midst of such challenges and doubts, it is crucial for New Delhi to engage proactively with the BRICS+ members through engaging, mustering economic cooperation through B2B partnerships since the BRICS accounts for 37.4 percent of global GDP where even 25 percent of global exports get transported among member countries. Thus, Beijing and New Delhi view BRICS as a critical partnership platform for achieving resilient cum sustainable growth.

Even though President Trump has made a declaration vis-à-vis BRICS being a dead institution, the members have agreed to meet in July in order to further focus on key issues and prove this statement regarding the existence factually wrong through mustering collaboration and in context to Sino-India relations, this could be one of the few avenues towards ensuring détente. Further, New Delhi seemingly should gain through fostering multi-alignment and make gains through the same to contain Beijing and make the latter aware of India’s rising regional role. Moreover, New Delhi’s universal approach in its external affairs will prove beneficial for its recognition as a responsible global player amongst Third World Countries.  

Looking at the strategies mentioned above and rising global importance, multilateral institutions like the BRICS must provide a platform for developing countries such as China and India to collaborate in acting as a bridge between Global South countries and the West so that status quo is maintained and fostered, in case if the US under President Trump adopts a protectionist approach towards national interests and economy, which will pave the way to uncertain shifts in trade balances, political structures, making it imperative for emphasizing on developing countries engaging and collaborating in an inclusive multilateral structure.  The October Summit should be seen as an example of keeping options open vis-a-vis multilateral discussions and dialogue despite competition and territorial suspicions.

Further, New Delhi being excused from the tariff hitlist may be an incentive for Beijing to look towards the former and work on burying the hatchet to restore the status quo pre-2020.

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