India and Pakistan are in state of war for the fifth time, with missiles and drones at the forefront of the conflict. The current conflict can be quoted as “India’s war against terrorism” following a terrorist attack that killed 26 tourists in Indian Kashmir on May 7, 2025. India responds against terror attack with strikes on terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir and in other parts of Pakistan. In a few hours, Pakistan hit more than dozens of northern cities in India with missiles and drones and caused civilian casualties. Further, Pakistan attacked multiple airports and military bases in India with SWARM drones and initiated the fifth war against India.

The continued heavy firing at the Line of Control (LOC) and beyond escalated the situation. Now India and Pakistan are heading to a full-fledged war. How far will the conflict go? What is the limit of this escalation?

The Conflict Brews with the Two Nation Theory Speech

Five days before the Kashmir terrorist attack, Pakistan’s General Asim Munir, gave a hateful speech against India and revived the old two-nation theory given by Pakistan’s founder, Muhammad Ali Jinnah. Munir propagated the difference between Hindus and Muslims and said, "Our forefathers believed that we were different from Hindus in every possible aspect of life. Our religion is different. Our customs are different. Our traditions are different. Our thoughts are different. Our ambitions are different… That was the foundation of the Two-Nation Theory. It was laid on the belief that we are two nations, not one."

Munir’s ambitions are exposed as he not only tried to fill hatred in his countrymen against India but also wanted to disturb the religious harmony in India. He projected Kashmir as Pakistan’s "Jugular vein" and vowed not to forget it. Munir’s hate speech was a call to unite Pakistan against India, and it shows his intent was to prepare the Pakistani government for a conflict with India which started with the terrorist attack on tourists in India.

The Spark: Kashmir Terrorist Attack

The Pahalgam terror attack in Indian Kashmir that killed 26 tourists on Tuesday, April 22, 2025, shook every Indian citizen. The attack was cold-blooded, brutal, and at point blank, as the terrorist asked the victims to recite the Quran and inquired about their religion. The victims were shot down in front of their wives and children. As per media reports, The Resistance Force (TRF) claimed responsibility for terror attacks. TRF is a subsidiary of Lashkar-e-Taiba (Le-T), a terrorist group based in Pakistan. The Indian government and all opposition parties are united to retaliate against terror attacks. The sentiments of Indians are high, demanding the government to take harsh action against the heinous attack. The international community condemned the attack on civilians. The United States, Japan, Russia, the U.K., France, and Israel showed their solidarity with India.

India was awaiting a response from Pakistan to apprehend the culprits, on the contrary, despite acquitting the perpetrators based on its soil, Pakistan started reaching out to countries and its friends- China, Iran, and Turkey to showcase potential threat from the Indian side. Additionally, Pakistan has issued a threat to use nuclear weapons.

India’s Counterterrorism Action: Economic, Diplomatic and Military Response

The Pahalgam terror attack in Kashmir, India, sparked the India-Pakistan crisis. The attack marks the worst assault on civilians since the Mumbai terror attack in 2008, and in the aftermath of the attack, both countries engaged in increasingly tense retaliatory measures. India recalled her diplomats and reduced its staff to half at the High Commission in Pakistan. The main land border crossing between the two countries – Wagah Border in India’s Punjab, has been closed. Pakistan nationals were asked to return to their country within 48 hours. India has canceled the Indus Water Treaty of 1960, which provides water to India and Pakistan.

India suspended all trade with India, closed its airspace for Pakistani airlines. India’s military were put on high alert, and the Indian Navy test-fired anti-ship missiles in the Arabian Sea. There were continued exchanges of gunfire along the Line of Control (LoC) in Kashmir for consecutive days. The domestic pressure on Prime Minister Modi and his cabinet to respond stringently to the terror attack and escalatory statements from Pakistan brought two nuclear-powered states at the brink of war. The two countries have already fought four wars -1947, 1965, 1971, and 1999.

Eleven days after the Pahalgam attack, India strikes back aiming at nine locations of terrorist organizations based in Pakistan. Indian military has initiated Operation Sindoor, – an intelligence-based precision strike on non-civilian and non-military targets in Pakistan. “Sindoor” is another term for vermillion, a religious powder applied in hair parting by married Indian women, worn till their husband is alive. India claims to have demolished the sites including ones where the 2019 Pulwama attackers were trained, killing 26 aides and relatives of these terrorists. India’s operation hit four locations of Jaish-e-Mohammed, three locations of Lashkar-e-Taiba, and two locations of Hizbul Mujahideen. India’s strike is a response to the brutal terror attack, as the Indian Defense Minister stated that India has used its right to respond.

Pakistan Military Chief, General Munir, has failed in his stance against India in dividing Hindu-Muslim harmony. On the contrary, it might be possible that due to internal conflict in Pakistan, he might overthrow the national government led by Shahbaz Sharif.

Pakistan has conducted heavy shelling along the disputed border in Kashmir and Punjab and claimed to have downed five Indian jets. In addition, firing along the LOC has continued for the past fourteen days due to the violation of the ceasefire by Pakistan. Pakistan’s heavy shelling in border areas has killed and injured many lives in the Indian territory.

The Greatest Risk

The nuclear capabilities of the two countries pose a major risk of this heightened conflict. India and Pakistan are both nuclear power states, and the possibility of escalation to nuclear weapons is the worst-case scenario, with catastrophic consequences for the Subcontinent and beyond.

While India has a declared "No First Use" (NFU) policy, there have been recent signals of a potential reconsideration, particularly in response to battlefield tactical nuclear weapons from Pakistan. On the other hand, Pakistan does not have NFU policy, and its leaders have repeatedly indicated the use of it against India.

What is next in the India-Pakistan War

India’s current operation is the biggest ever in its war against terrorism. India has adopted a strategic and pragmatic approach to dismantle the terrorist infrastructure. It is evident that India aims to eradicate the cross-border terrorism that India has been suffering through for close to three decades. Furthermore, India is advancing its diplomatic effort to put pressure on Pakistan to stop sheltering terrorist groups on its soil.

At this juncture, when the tension between India and Pakistan escalates into a war, it could have significant implications for the broader region. Given the nuclear capability of both countries, it could lead to a wider conflict. India’s other adversary, China, may support Pakistan, aiming to protect its huge investments in the country through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Furthermore, Turkey has already offered its support to Pakistan. Any third actor’s involvement would intensify the conflict and could change the dynamics of the India-Pakistan war.

A war between India and Pakistan could destabilize the entire South Asian region, with potential spillover effects on neighboring countries and beyond.