Tehran to Taiwan: How will the Two
Superpowers Negotiate
By: Indu Saxena | May 17th 2026

The 20-hour flight to
Beijing was far from a routine diplomatic excursion for US President Donald
Trump, undertaken against the backdrop of a precarious and volatile situation
in the Middle East; the trip was less a matter of choice than of strategic compulsion.
Trump arrived in the Chinese capital with an “America First” agenda, securing
meaningful trade deals, extracting from Chinese President Xi Jinping a
categorical assurance of no material assistance to Iran, and enlisting
Beijing’s diplomatic weight to facilitate the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz
— the critical waterway through which 20 million barrels per day of crude oil
supply flows.
Xi, characteristically measured and deliberately, extended
a welcoming gesture rather than engaging in confrontation. He signaled openness
— China, he indicated, stood ready to make substantial purchases
of American soybeans, renew the expired facilities of beef, and resume imports
of USDA-approved poultry. China will also buy 200 Boeing
aircraft from the US and address the concern about a shortage of rare earth
materials for the US. It is noted that China dominates rare earth materials,
which are essential for industries, defense, aerospace, etc., while committing
to channeling significant investment flows into the United States economy.
Accompanying Trump on the Beijing visit was an impressive constellation of
American corporate titans: Cristiano Amon, CEO of Qualcomm, Elon Musk of Tesla
& Space X, Tim Cook of Apple, Stephen Schwarzman of Blackstone, Larry Fink
of BlackRock, David Solomon of Goldman Sachs, Jensen Huang of Nvidia — a
delegation whose very composition signaled that this summit was as much about
commerce as it was about geopolitics. While Trump steered the “America First”
agenda and a transactional approach at the high-stakes summit, he confined his
visit to G-2 (America-China) topics. However, G-2 topics largely impact across
the continent in today’s interconnected world. The G-2 negotiation is never
merely bilateral; its reverberations ripple across every continent and corridor
of global trade and security
On the Strait of Hormuz, Trump emerged
from discussions asserting that Xi had committed to assisting in its reopening.
The logic of Chinese interest is straightforward and compelling: Beijing is
among the largest consumers of Gulf petroleum, and any prolonged closure of the
strait — whether through Iranian interdiction or military escalation — would
impose severe and immediate economic costs on the Chinese economy. Iran, for
its part, remains a pivotal Chinese partner in the Middle East, supplying oil
under sanctions-era arrangements that Beijing has studiously maintained.
Whether Xi’s stated willingness to act on Hormuz translates into substantive
diplomatic pressure on Tehran remains to be seen — but the convergence of
Chinese economic self-interest and American strategic necessity created, at
least in principle, a basis for cooperation.
On Taiwan,
the summit produced its most consequential and consequential ambiguous
exchange. Xi delivered an unambiguous warning: American arms sales to Taiwan
and any form of support for the island’s defense posture risked precipitating
friction of the gravest order — friction that could, in the worst case,
escalate into open conflict. His position was unequivocal: Taiwan is an
inalienable part of China, and any external interference in that matter
constitutes an intolerable provocation.
Trump’s response was characteristically non-committal. He
told reporters he would "make a determination" on arms sales to
Taiwan after consulting with relevant members of his administration — a
formulation that conveyed neither reassurance to Taipei nor outright
capitulation to Beijing. What was notable, however, was his public admonition
to Taiwan against pursuing formal independence, and his explicit reluctance to
contemplate deploying American forces 9,500 miles from home to prosecute a conflict
in the Taiwan Strait. "Cool down," he urged both parties — a phrase
that, in the charged context of cross-strait relations, carried enormous
diplomatic weight.
The fate of Taiwan’s arms acquisitions now hangs in a state
of provisional uncertainty. Beijing’s warnings are strenuous and unrelenting
for the US arms sale to Taiwan. Yet, relations with
Taiwan is bipartisan, and the US Congress constrains
any unilateral reversal of course on US-Taiwan relations. The Taiwan
Relations Act of 1979 — a bipartisan legislative
cornerstone of American foreign policy — establishes clearly and unambiguously
that:
"The
future of Taiwan will be determined by peaceful means and that any effort… by
other than peaceful means, including by boycotts or embargoes is considered a
threat to the peace and security of the Western Pacific area and of grave
concern to the United States. The United States shall provide Taiwan with arms
of a defensive character and shall maintain the capacity of the United States
to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize
the security, or social or economic system, of the people of Taiwan."
Taiwan,
in short, is not a matter that any American president can resolve unilaterally
or recalibrate at will. It is a bipartisan commitment encoded in statute — one
that successive administrations of both parties have upheld, however
inconsistently, for nearly five decades. Whatever private assurances Trump may
have offered Xi in Beijing, the legal and legislative framework governing
US-Taiwan relations endures, and its dismantling would jeopardize American
interest in the Indo-Pacific.
The
long-awaited Beijing summit began with a noteworthy display of diplomatic
engagement, yet both parties were left in a state of continued uncertainty
until Xi’s expected visit to US this fall. Two of the world’s most powerful
leaders met, spoke at length, and what emerged was a careful treading of
strategic faultlines between the two superpowers.