Tehran to Taiwan: How will the Two Superpowers Negotiate

By: Indu Saxena | May 17th 2026

Trump-Xi
Figure 1: US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, China May 14-15, 2026.

The 20-hour flight to Beijing was far from a routine diplomatic excursion for US President Donald Trump, undertaken against the backdrop of a precarious and volatile situation in the Middle East; the trip was less a matter of choice than of strategic compulsion. Trump arrived in the Chinese capital with an “America First” agenda, securing meaningful trade deals, extracting from Chinese President Xi Jinping a categorical assurance of no material assistance to Iran, and enlisting Beijing’s diplomatic weight to facilitate the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz — the critical waterway through which 20 million barrels per day of crude oil supply flows.

          Xi, characteristically measured and deliberately, extended a welcoming gesture rather than engaging in confrontation. He signaled openness — China, he indicated, stood ready to make substantial purchases of American soybeans, renew the expired facilities of beef, and resume imports of USDA-approved poultry. China will also buy 200 Boeing aircraft from the US and address the concern about a shortage of rare earth materials for the US. It is noted that China dominates rare earth materials, which are essential for industries, defense, aerospace, etc., while committing to channeling significant investment flows into the United States economy. Accompanying Trump on the Beijing visit was an impressive constellation of American corporate titans: Cristiano Amon, CEO of Qualcomm, Elon Musk of Tesla & Space X, Tim Cook of Apple, Stephen Schwarzman of Blackstone, Larry Fink of BlackRock, David Solomon of Goldman Sachs, Jensen Huang of Nvidia — a delegation whose very composition signaled that this summit was as much about commerce as it was about geopolitics. While Trump steered the “America First” agenda and a transactional approach at the high-stakes summit, he confined his visit to G-2 (America-China) topics. However, G-2 topics largely impact across the continent in today’s interconnected world. The G-2 negotiation is never merely bilateral; its reverberations ripple across every continent and corridor of global trade and security

          On the Strait of Hormuz, Trump emerged from discussions asserting that Xi had committed to assisting in its reopening. The logic of Chinese interest is straightforward and compelling: Beijing is among the largest consumers of Gulf petroleum, and any prolonged closure of the strait — whether through Iranian interdiction or military escalation — would impose severe and immediate economic costs on the Chinese economy. Iran, for its part, remains a pivotal Chinese partner in the Middle East, supplying oil under sanctions-era arrangements that Beijing has studiously maintained. Whether Xi’s stated willingness to act on Hormuz translates into substantive diplomatic pressure on Tehran remains to be seen — but the convergence of Chinese economic self-interest and American strategic necessity created, at least in principle, a basis for cooperation.

          On Taiwan, the summit produced its most consequential and consequential ambiguous exchange. Xi delivered an unambiguous warning: American arms sales to Taiwan and any form of support for the island’s defense posture risked precipitating friction of the gravest order — friction that could, in the worst case, escalate into open conflict. His position was unequivocal: Taiwan is an inalienable part of China, and any external interference in that matter constitutes an intolerable provocation.

          Trump’s response was characteristically non-committal. He told reporters he would "make a determination" on arms sales to Taiwan after consulting with relevant members of his administration — a formulation that conveyed neither reassurance to Taipei nor outright capitulation to Beijing. What was notable, however, was his public admonition to Taiwan against pursuing formal independence, and his explicit reluctance to contemplate deploying American forces 9,500 miles from home to prosecute a conflict in the Taiwan Strait. "Cool down," he urged both parties — a phrase that, in the charged context of cross-strait relations, carried enormous diplomatic weight.

          The fate of Taiwan’s arms acquisitions now hangs in a state of provisional uncertainty. Beijing’s warnings are strenuous and unrelenting for the US arms sale to Taiwan. Yet, relations    with Taiwan is bipartisan, and the US Congress constrains any unilateral reversal of course on US-Taiwan relations. The Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 — a bipartisan legislative cornerstone of American foreign policy — establishes clearly and unambiguously that:

"The future of Taiwan will be determined by peaceful means and that any effort… by other than peaceful means, including by boycotts or embargoes is considered a threat to the peace and security of the Western Pacific area and of grave concern to the United States. The United States shall provide Taiwan with arms of a defensive character and shall maintain the capacity of the United States to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security, or social or economic system, of the people of Taiwan."

Taiwan, in short, is not a matter that any American president can resolve unilaterally or recalibrate at will. It is a bipartisan commitment encoded in statute — one that successive administrations of both parties have upheld, however inconsistently, for nearly five decades. Whatever private assurances Trump may have offered Xi in Beijing, the legal and legislative framework governing US-Taiwan relations endures, and its dismantling would jeopardize American interest in the Indo-Pacific.

The long-awaited Beijing summit began with a noteworthy display of diplomatic engagement, yet both parties were left in a state of continued uncertainty until Xi’s expected visit to US this fall. Two of the world’s most powerful leaders met, spoke at length, and what emerged was a careful treading of strategic faultlines between the two superpowers.