The U.S. President, Donald Trump, and the Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, are set to meet in Washington, D.C., on February 13, the fifth meeting since 2017, a long-term relationship that presents an opportunity for collaboration. Trump and Modi share a friendly relationship built on Howdy Modi and Namaste Trump. Both leaders hold ‘nationalistic’ views and promote visions of ‘America First’ and ‘Make in India.’ And both appreciate each other’s vision of growth and prosperity of their countries. Now the challenge lies in blending these visions for mutual benefit and cohesion.

Prospectively, both leaders will concentrate on the three D’s- deficit in trade, defense partnership, and deterrence in the Indo-Pacific. It remains to be seen how these two influential leaders will interact and address the challenges to embark on the next phase of the U.S.-India relationship.

Trump 2.0 and Modi 3.0: A New Dynamic?

During a phone conversation on January 27, Trump and Modi discussed global security issues, including those in the Middle East, Europe, and the Indo-Pacific. They agreed to expand cooperation and deepen ties between the two nations. Furthermore, Modi is the third foreign leader in a row, and the second in the Indo-Pacific to visit the White House, following Israel’s Netanyahu and Japan’s Shigeru Ishiba.

Within three weeks of taking office, U.S. President Trump has prioritized his election campaign promise of immigration and trade balance with countries, including allies and adversaries. In both issues, India has been ‘engaged’ with the U.S. and also accepted 104 undocumented nationals. On the economic side, in the preemptive measures, India’s Union budget 2025-26 has slashed import duties on American products and aims to align positively with the Trump 2.0 administration.

India’s engagement with the Trump administration’s immigration policy and trade talks signifies a positive trajectory in U.S.-India relations. This cooperation could usher in a new era of U.S.-Indo partnership at a time of complicated geopolitical dynamics.

Trump 2.0 and Trade Deficit

Trump is set to announce reciprocal tariffs on many countries to reduce trade deficit and imbalances with the United States. The U.S. goods and services trade deficit with India was USD 45.7 billion in 2022 and USD 38 billion in 2024. Trump emphasized his tariff plans with his alliance partner, Japan’s Ishiba, during his visit to Washington on February 7,2025. U.S. Congressman Moore introduced the U.S. Reciprocal Trade Act to bring transparency and fairness in trade relations with countries around the world. This act would allow Trump to negotiate, reduce trade deficit, and impose reciprocal tariffs on foreign goods as needed. Trump’s reciprocal trade policy applies to all countries, including Mexico, Canada, the European Union, Japan, India, and so many others. For Trump, it is “common sense” to prioritize allies and partners to work with and strengthen relations that yield mutual benefits and enhance economic growth and prosperity. India’s leading companies have a unique opportunity to invest in the United States across several key sectors, including steel, energy, and pharmaceuticals. Furthermore, India’s investment in U.S. is expected to boost with the new administration. The U.S. also recognizes the potential of a vibrant market of 1.4 billion people, which holds immense potential for transformative partnerships and economic development. This not only enhances economic growth and prosperity but also strengthens bilateral relations and solidifies the supply chain.

It is highly anticipated that Trump will advocate for a trade deal with India that reduces tariffs on American imports. These sales may provide thousands of jobs in both countries.

Defense, Security, and Technological Cooperation

U.S. and India have the potential to accelerate collaboration in advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence, quantum technologies, and the semiconductor supply chain. This collaboration is particularly important in the context of the strategic competition with China, considering China’s recent breakthrough of DeepSeek. By working together in these areas, both countries can strengthen their technological collaboration, capabilities and counter China’s dominance in these fields. Previously, the U.S. and India have been advancing initiatives on Critical and Emerging Technology (ICET) and the India-U.S. Defense Acceleration Ecosystem (INDUS-X). The US-India defense trade increased from zero in 2008 to over $20 billion in 2020. In 2024, more than a $5 billion defense deal was reported. Defense trade cooperation between the U.S. and India is expected to expand further with the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA) and Communications, Compatibility, and Security Agreement (COMCASA). The U.S. Defense Secretary Peter Hegseth, on a call to his Indian counterpart Rajnath Singh, emphasizes pursuing an ambitious plan to enhance the defense industrial and technology collaboration between the two countries. Furthermore, both countries agree to draft a ten-year U.S.-India Defense Framework.

Furthermore, the U.S. and India have long been working on combating terrorism, and both countries need to enhance joint operations, intelligence, and surveillance. The two countries look forward to cooperation in combating terrorism, viewing the tumultuous situation in Israel and Hamas that can rebound groups proscribed by the United Nations Security Council, including but not limited to, Al-Qaida, ISIS/Daesh Lashkar-e-Tayyiba (LeT), and Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM). In the new development, the U.S. approved the extradition of the 2008 Mumbai terror attack accused, Tahawwur Rana, to India.

Strategic Cooperation: Indo-Pacific Priorities and Regional Challenges

Trump and his cabinet are intensifying efforts to deter China in the Indo-Pacific, underscoring the importance of a rule-based, free, and open Indo-Pacific. This urgency further highlights the significance of U.S.-India cooperation to combat China’s increasingly assertive behavior in the region. China is using its gray-zone tactics from Tibet to Taiwan. After the Galwan face-off in 2020, China’s assertiveness at India’s Eastern Border is a major security concern. The U.S. solidified its support and introduced a bipartisan resolution reaffirming its recognition of Arunachal Pradesh as an integral part of India.

Both countries need robust cooperation to maintain the autonomy of Tibet, as China is harming the ecological and cultural aspects by making dams over rivers and changing the names of places in the border region. The Trump administration needs to build on last year’s delegation led by House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul, who met with His Holiness, Dalai Lama, the spiritual leader of the Tibetans. Additionally, it is important to ensure that China does not assume the authority to choose the next Lama on behalf of the Tibetan people.

China leverages its influence through the Belt Road Initiative (BRI) in South Asia, particularly Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Myanmar, and these states are in mayhem and on the verge of financial and humanitarian crises. The current destabilizing conditions provide an opportunity for China to assert greater influence in the region.

The U.S. and India aim to enhance multi-sector cooperation and build resilient supply chains for mutual benefit, while also addressing the rising challenges of China’s assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific region. Additionally, Trump and Modi have a historic opportunity to boost U.S.-Indo partnership, potentially leaving a lasting legacy during their tenure.

Author’s Biography: Dr. Indu Saxena is a senior expert and fellow at the Consortium of Indo-Pacific Researchers. She writes on U.S. India Relations, South Asia, and Indo-Pacific Security.